Measurement and Evolution Analysis of China’s Agricultural New Quality Productivity Level Under the TOE Framework

Abstract

This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system of agricultural new quality productivity (ANQP) covering three levels: technology, organization, and environment, and is refined into five dimensions: new quality laborers, new quality means of production, new quality labor objects, new quality development methods, and new quality development environment, based on the TOE framework. Using panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021, the entropy method, Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and Markov chain are used to measure the development level of ANQP, and its regional distribution pattern and dynamic evolution characteristics are deeply analyzed. Founding that: (1) Although there are differences in the development level and growth rate of AANQP in various provinces in China, they are generally on a continuous upward trend. High-level regions play a leading role, while medium and low-level regions accelerate their catch-up, jointly promoting the evolution of the national development pattern towards a balanced direction. (2) The development level of ANQP in the nine major agricultural regions shows a significant gradient distribution, and regional differences are the main factor leading to overall unbalanced development. (3) There is a structural imbalance in dimensional development, with obvious differentiation of regional advantages. Different regions have their characteristics and shortcomings in specific dimensions. In terms of hierarchical development, the organizational level has the highest level of development, and there is still room for improvement in the levels of technology application and environmental optimization; (4) The spatial distribution of ANQP has converged from a multi-peak model to a single-peak model, and regional differences have narrowed, but the overall level is still low. There is a “club convergence” effect between regions. The development level of each province is highly sustainable, and it is difficult to upgrade across stages, but the upward transfer trend is significant.